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« State of the Union Address
Chinese Travel Mess »

The Recession Has Begun

Fourth quarter GDP was releasd this morning and it grew at an annualized rate of only 0.6%.  During the same time frame, inflation ran at an annualized rate of 2.6%. 

By the classic definition of a recession, which is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, we’re not there yet.  But by my more meaningful definition - one that gauges the impact on average Americans, we’re already in a significant recession.  By my definition, a recession occurs when GDP doesn’t grow enough to keep pace with inflation and population growth.  Since inflation is running at 2.6% and population growth is about 1% per year - a total of 3.6% - then GDP needs to grow by 3.6% for Americans to keep pace.  With GDP growth of only 0.6%, Americans have fallen behind by 3.0%.  That is, the average American is now 3% worse off than he/she was just a few months ago.  That’s pretty significant! 

In fact, it’s even worse than that.  For all of 2007, GDP grew only 2.2%, 1.4% below the rate needed to keep pace with inflation and population growth.  So, by my definition, Americans have been in a recession for at least a year.   That’s not surprising since median wages and net worth have been in decline for over three decades. 

Stay tuned.  This is likely to get worse. 

Pete

This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 30th, 2008 at 1:56 pm and is filed under Uncategorized, U.S. Economy. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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